Jarrid Kosa, Lunch Beers Podcast Host – What a great week of football, I love the time of the season when we get regular season games on Saturday, you can’t beat it. I wish I could beat NBC as an organization for not allowing the legend Al Michaels to call a playoff game, but Carrie Underwood will always have me ready to go for Sunday Night, so I digress. However, I am sure Uncle Al had a great time in Sin City on Thursday, who the hell had the Raiders to score 63 points? They absolutely pummeled their division rivals and the Chargers without their franchise QB and star receiver Keenan Allen might as well break out the golf clubs early. The Chargers don’t have much to play for outside of not being in the bottom of the division at the end of the season. Hope no one told the college football committee a back up quarterback put up 63 points.
Speaking of back-up QB’s I bet the Vikings wish they still had Jake Browning who has been on an absolute tear since taking over for Joe Burrow. The Bengals looked like they were down and out entering the 4th quarter, but were able to muster up 21 points and send the game to overtime to get the win and suddenly they are back in the playoff hunt. Browning has now tallied 300+ air yards in multiple games and I don’t think anyone wants to see him in the playoffs, as the Bengals hold tie breakers over the Bills and Colts so they may sneak in if they stay hot. Currently the Bengals hold the 6th seed and Jake Browning is kinda doing the Tom Brady thing when he took over for Drew Bledsoe.
Mike Tomlin is now in jeopardy of his first losing season and I hope they are .500 going into week 18 so the Ravens can give it to him. With the Colts 30-13 win over the Steelers they currently hold the 7th seed in the AFC playoff picture, but they may have to push on without their star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. whom suffered a brutal concussion in the contest. If the Colts can find their way to January football I think you have to give coach of the year to Shane Steichen. The work he has done as a first year head coach without Johnathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson is incredible. Minshew Mania was on full display on Saturday when he threw for 3 touchdowns.
The Broncos had everything going for them until Saturday when the Lions added Broncos to their food pyramid. I talked about the Broncos inability to stop the run last week and I am gonna pat myself on the back here for being spot on. Jahmyr Gibbs carried the ball 11 times for 100 yards and had 2 scores. David Montgomery had 85 yards on 17 carries out of the RB2 spot and Jared Goff threw 5 touchdown passes. I have no idea why I took the Broncos +5 last week when I feared that their defense would have a hiccup against this stellar Lions Defense, I guess I thought they could do more on offense. If you watched the game you would know Sean Peyton was a frustrated as me and decided to scream at Russell Wilson for his inability to cook. Wilson was 18/32 for 223 yards and 1 touchdown and the Denver rushing game was also held at bay totaling only 83 rush yards. The Broncos went from having a shot to winning the AFC West to praying they can sneak into the playoffs.
Joe Flacco may have had the craziest game of the week with 374 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Somehow the Browns defense were able to hold on! The Bears offense dropped 2 touchdown passes including a hail-mary at the end of the game that went from being in the hands of a Bears receiver, to hitting his foot, to sticking into the Cleveland defender’s hands. With the miracle win the Browns moved to 9-5 and currently hold the 5th seed in the AFC. Wouldn’t it be legendary if Joe Flacco won a playoff game? I hope it happens.
Former Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield all but eliminated the Green Bay Packers from playoff contention on Sunday with a 34-20 win. Mayfield threw for a league leading 381 yards and he recorded 4 touchdown passes as well, Baker has really found a home in Tampa Bay and it looks like his gamble with the 1-year contract is going to pay off for him. The Buc’s are in the drivers seat, they get the banged up Jaguars on Christmas Eve and then have the Saints and Panthers to close the season. If they beat the Jags and the Saints lose to the Rams on TNF and Tampa wins both of those division matchups, then Baker will get a home playoff game.
The Houston Texans are another team fighting for a home playoff game. The Texans won an absolute nail biter on Sunday 19-16 over their division rivals in Tennessee. Currently the Jag’s hold the tie-breaker over the Texans, but if Houston can win out they may win the AFC South. It will be an uphill battle as they host the Browns in week 16, then the Titans in week 17, and close out at Indy in a monster AFC South matchup with huge playoff implications. I think whoever wins that game will win get into the playoffs, and I would parlay each outcome with either DeMeco Ryans or Shane Steichen to win coach of the year. Both coaches have battled with crucial team injures and have their teams playing playoff caliber football, which in my book gets them the award over the favorite Dan Campbell +200, as the Lions have not faced the same adversity as those 2 teams.
On the flip side, Arthur Smith is finally on the hotseat losing 9-7 against the Panthers while only giving their star running back Bijan Robinson 8 touches. What a joke. Desmond Ridder can’t win on the road and the Falcons playoff hopes have seem to fly away. Robert Salah may also be on the hotseat as the Jet’s were embarrassed 30-0 on Sunday in Miami. Miami still fighting for the top seed in the AFC have 2 tough matchups in the road hosting the Cowboys on Christmas eve and then travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens. NFL please don’t flex that game to prime time, I am too tired.
As predicted the Chiefs got back on the winning side of things defeating the Patriots 27-17. The Chiefs have a favorable schedule and still have a good shot at getting the bye in the AFC barring a Ravens or Dolphins collapse. The Chiefs close the season by going to Vegas on Christmas to take on the Raiders, then they get the Bengals which may be a tougher game for Kansas City than originally perceived, and they close out with the down and out Chargers in LA in week 18. It is very possible they finish the season 12-5 or 11-6 and get the top seed as they do have the tie breaker over the Ravens due to having less conference losses.
The 49ers continue to dominate taking out the Cardinals 45-29 and San Fran looks to be the clear favorite to win the NFC and their QB Brock Purdy may go from Mr. Irrelevant to Mr. MVP. The upcoming contest against the Ravens will likely determine that award and I am sad to say I think the Niners will win and cover the opening line of -4. Time will tell.
We can’t count out the Niners division rival in LA however as Matt Stafford appears to be in prime form once again. The Rams offense is full of weapons and Kyren Williams has not missed a beat coming off the injured reserve list. Williams had 152 yards on 27 carries and 1 touchdown and his effectiveness on the ground has really opened up the play-action for the gunslinging Stafford. Most notably on the 62 yard touchdown pass to Cooper Kupp on Sunday. The Rams currently hold the 7th seed and with the Vikings bleeding they may get the 6th seed heading into the Playoffs. The Ram’s very easily could have beat the Ravens in week 14 and I would not want to play them if I was on any team in the NFC. Rams host the Saints on Thursday Night Football in a game with huge playoff implications. I think they get it done.
Another team no one wants to see in the playoffs is the resurging Buffalo Bills. Buffalo bullied the Cowboys 31-10 and their defense was absolutely incredible in the contest only allowing a red hot Dak to throw for 134 yards and the Bills recorded an interception in the contest too. James Cook bullied the Cowboys defense for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns and if the Cowboys don’t fix their run defense they will surely be in trouble against Dolphin in week 16. The Bills have an easy game against the Chargers in week 16, another easy one at home against the Patriots in week 17, and may be playing for the division in week 18 when they head down to Miami. If the Dolphins lose to the Cowboys or Ravens in the next few games week 18 will be for all the marbles and I hope it plays out that way.
Luckily for the Cowboys, the Eagles lost their 3rd game in a row on Monday and Dallas still sits atop of the NFC East. The Cowboys schedule however, is much more difficult than the Eagles as the Cowboys close out with Miami, Detroit, and Washington. While the Eagles will face the Giants, Cardinals, and close with the Giants. But, it is sports and crazy things happen, the NFC East is up for grabs. If I were the Cowboys I would prefer their schedule because they be playing games against playoff caliber teams minus the Commanders, vs the Eagles who are currently trying to fly with clipped wing playing bad teams and then going into the playoffs not sure if they are ready or not because the poor competition won’t give them a true gauge after this losing streak. Oh Also, with Seattle’s win on Monday that makes in 7 dogs that won outright on Monday Night Football. I always miss these trains and didn’t even realize we could be raking in cash on all those big plus prices, bad job by me.
Speaking of bad jobs, what were the Jaguars doing on Sunday Night? They had a chance to get back into the game before halftime and totally miss-managed the clock. The Ravens defense came up huge when the Jags decided not to clock the ball and made a huge stop keeping the Jags in bounds and they could not score before the half. Just like their record the Ravens 1st quarter spread bet continues to print money as they moved to 11-3 in against the spread in that category. Although Lamar Jackson did not light up the stat sheet he absolutely dazzled in the win, breaking tackles and avoiding the rush all night to move the ball down field. However, with the devastating loss of Keaton Mitchell and a weary offensive line I am very afraid for their match-up in Candlestick Park on Christmas. Just hoping the Ravens can hold onto the bye as the clearly need it.
What I need is a winning week. We went 4-4 last week in our plays on the blog, Zay Flowers was a total non-factor in the win over the Jag’s so we lost those props, The Broncos poo pood us, and Dan Campbell wanted to give Gibbs 2 touchdowns instead of letting Montgomery get 1 on a driver where he took the work load to get the Lions into the Redzone. We did cash our Chiefs/Ravens money line parlay, and both Lions running backs went over their rushing prop, and Gibbs scored not once but twice, so we can’t complain. This week I am going to goo low in the Commanders and Jet’s matchup on Christmas Eve as of now there looks to be weather. The Jets offense can’t score and the Commanders are prone to turnovers and the Jet’s defense is surely good at creating them, so give me the under 38.5 in that contest. On Saturday I am going to go back to the ML parlay well, give me the Bengals and the Bills +105. On Christmas I will have an AFC North teaser in my pocket riding with my two favorite QB’s Lamar and Joe gimme the Browns +8.5 in Houston and The Ravens +11.5 on Christmas. Good luck and Merry Christmas.
Blog Record: 15-13
