Jarrid Kosa, Lunch Beers Podcast Host – The NFL Week 11 Recap, but I really hate that every week I go to reflect on what I saw in the NFL the first thing that comes to mind it, “who is out for the season now?”
The plethora of season ending injuries started in week 1 and have not yielded, every week we are losing players to significant injuries. Thursday Night Football was set up to be a spectacle between AFC North rivals and quickly turned into a flag fest riddled with pain.
Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews connected early on the first drive, and on his second catch Andrews broke one tackle and then tried to push for the endzone before being brought down by Logan Wilson. The second effort by Andrews unfortunately was his last in the 2023 campaign and now the top seeded Ravens are without their best play maker. The Ravens offense stagnated for a while, having a 40 yard touchdown pass to Zay Flowers called back on a very soft holding penalty on OBJ, but the offense go right and Gus Edwards got into the endzone two more times notching his 9th and 10th touchdown in five games. The guy is an ATM and we should be betting his TD prop every week. Later in the second half the Bengals appeared to be making a comeback until Joe Burrow left the game with a hand injury that also turned out to be season ending. An exciting game quickly turned into gut punch for NFL fans, the Bengals playoff hopes are looking very bleak after that loss and the Ravens expanded their lead in the AFC North.
On Sunday the dogs were barking. Under dogs went 9-5 in week 11. Now there were a lot of huge lines, but Tommy DeVito’s mom didn’t tell him that when they were getting ready for their division matchup with the Commanders. Washington favorites of 9 points got absolutely rolled by footballs second biggest momma’s boy behind Bobby Boucher aka the WaterBoy. DeVito went 18/26 with 246 air yards and 3 touchdowns. Sam Howell was a huge disappointment going under his passing yard prop for the first time in over 3 weeks going 31/45 with 255 yards and a 1-3 TD to INT ratio. Yikes. The Commanders outgained the Giants in the game but could not overcome the turnovers and the Giants dominated the 4th quarter to close out the game outscoring the Commanders 17-7 to get the victory on the road.
We would have to swing over to the Midwest to witness the other dog in the 1pm slate that won out right as the Packers were able to bounce bag after a tough loss in Pittsburg in week 10 and grab their 4th win of the season against the lousy Los Angeles Chargers defense. Jordan Love is starting to come into his own putting together two solid weeks of play in a row. Love threw for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Packers receiving core put together a great team effort, the cheese had 5 players with 3 plus catches and 30 plus yards. Justin Herbert could not get that kind of output from his receiving core, Quentin Johnson dropped a crucial pass late that may have kept the Bolts alive, and it appears they are really missing Mike Williams. Another disappointing season loading for the Chargers.
Da Bears, tried their best to shake up the NFC north but blew a 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter. The Lions were shut out in the 1st and 3rd quarter, but the defense held the bears to just 6 points in the 4th and a late TD from David Montgomery go the Lions the win. I scoffed at Jared Goff all game while he threw 3 interceptions and only completed 23 of his 25 passes. Luckily for him the Lions has great weapons on offense and he was able to rely on his skill players to get back into the game. The Lions now have the 2nd best record in the NFL at 8-2.
On the other side of the North, the Steelers finally fired Matt Canada after losing to DTR and the Browns 13-10. Wow what an awful game that was. It blows my mind that the Steelers have a winning record and are 2-2 in the AFC North. The Browns defense continues to be elite and if it weren’t for season ending injuries to Nick Chubb and Desean Watson the Browns very well could have been the best team in the NFL. DTR wasn’t spectacular, but you don’t have to be against an offense that can’t score. Pickett only threw for 106 yards. Wow that is so bad. Jaylen Warren carried the Steelers with 129 yards and their lone TD. I am not sure if firing Matt Canada is going to fix this broken offense. The Steelers gotta get MVP Mitch in there if they have any hope of making the Playoffs.
The Dolphins offense was disappointing against a mid Raiders team, which is weird to say when Tua had 325 yards and 2 TD’s. Jalen Ramsey snagged 2 INT’s and the Dolphins defense improved and were able to shut out Vegas in the second half, but the Phins could not cover. Tyreek Hill dominated again as he continues to make his case for offensive player of the year.
The Jags and Cowboys rolled and continue to make playoff pushes. Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard both got in the endzone, finally. Both teams have a tough hill to climb to win the division, but still possible. A unlikely story is emerging from Houston Texas as CJ Stroud continues to dominate the NFL as a rookie. You can hand him ROTY and he is still making his case for MVP and if the Texans make the playoffs why not? Stroud went 27/37 with 336 yards 2 TD’s, but did throw 3 picks. Tank Dell is growing into a fine weapon for Stroud as Dell went for 149 yards 8 catches and a TD. The Cardinals are a much feistier team than their 2-9 record shows. Cards covered the opening line of +5.5 and Murray has looked better than expected in his two games back. The Texans may be worth a look at +275 to win the AFC south as they are only a game behind the Jags and have already defeated them this season.
The 4pm slate was like a giant plate at Thanksgiving, it put you to sleep. Niners Rolled, Bills bounced back strong after a devastating loss to the Broncos on Monday (I am still not over that), and the Seahawks choked and the Rams won outright as underdogs. Geno Smith continues to prove why he should have never won come back player of the year in 2022. He will never write me back, but I will still write him off. Seahawks were out scored 10-0 in the 4th quarter blowing a 16-7 lead. Players who “came back” from being bad, don’t do that. That loss may prove pivotal for the Seahawks in their hunt for a playoff spot in the NFC.
Sunday night football was just as good as Carrie Underwood makes it out to be. Josh Dobbs continues to go nuclear on the NFL and if not for a few dump offs from Russell Wilson to Samaje Perine and a sensational catch by Courtland Sutton the Vikings would be holding a 7-4 record opposed to 6-5. However, the Vikings were without Justin Jefferson and still managed to outgain the Broncos in the offensive yardage category. The Broncos are on a solid win streak and continue to improve. Russ might have something cooking in Denver as the Bronco’s continue to win in dramatic fashion.
Taylor Swift was never ever, ever going to the Superbowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Eagles got their sweet revenge defeating the Chiefs in a nail bitter 21-17. There is a lot to take away from that game. The Chiefs fell out of the top seed in the AFC yielding that mark to the Baltimore Ravens with that loss as the Chiefs moved to 7-3. AFC teams on Monday night against NFC move to 11-30-2 against the spread on Monday Night Football and MNF under’s are now 10-1 this season the one lone over being the Browns and Steelers in week 2. Now that game may have gone over if not for the Mahomes INT in the redzone in the first half and the costly drops for the Chiefs offense.
Travis Kelce continues to struggle when his girl doesn’t sing to him pre-game and the Chiefs have a lot of question marks in the skill player position. KC may not be the big bad wolf anymore and I am not sure if they crack the 3 teams in the NFL anymore, maybe even top 5 for a hot take. The Chiefs do have an easy schedule coming up however and have plenty of time to get right before the playoffs. The Eagles continue to own the NFL’s best record at 9-1 and it appears they have very few worthy advisories. Jalen Hurts TD prop continues to print money faster than the FED as he scored his 8th and 9th rushing TD in the contest. Going to be an exciting game at the Linc this Sunday as they take on Buffalo as two of the craziest fan bases in the NFL clash together.
As we wrap up here going into the Thanksgiving week we have a lot to be thankful for. I’d like to thank all my readers who take time out of their day to consume my content and I’d like to Thank Ralph Lucchese and the Podcast Room for proving me this platform. I’d also like to thank the NFL for giving us 6 winners on the blog last week! That’s right, we hit our Teaser +160 which got really hairy with Detroit and Miami and we swept the board on out TD Props as well. Tony Pollard finally got past the goal line, thank the maker. I said last week let’s get on the greener side of the grass and that is what we did.
This week we are going on the road with a Dolphins/Ravens ML Parlay -133 on DraftKings. I will also been on Ravens 1st quarter spread -0.5 +100 as they are 9-2 in the category this season and I think it will be a huge game for Lamar against the worst secondary in the NFL. His passing yard prop is not listed yet, but I would bet it over all the way up to 270.5 yards. The Chargers defense allows 291.6 air yards per game to opposing QB’s and I think the Ravens will come to make a statement to show that this offense can still air it out without Mark Andrews. Let’s keep the butter on the roll this Thanksgiving weekend.
Blog Plays: 10-6.
